Demand for diamonds will expand by in excess of 6 percent annually over the next decade and almost double due to rising demand from from China and India, according to a report by business consultants Bain & Company who added that supply will be hampered by a lack of new mines. Demand is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 6.4 percent to almost 250 million carats, and 6.6 percent in value terms by 2020.
According to Bain, rough diamond supply is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent globally in the decade to 2020 in carat terms. That takes into account new projects coming onstream in the short term but also the impact of relatively flat growth towards the end of the decade as no major new deposit discoveries have been made since Murowa in Zimbabwe in 1997. The forecast of precise supply figures is complicated by the fact that Russian state mineral repository, the Gokhran, could have supplies of rough valued at more than $1 billion bought from Alrosa during the financial crisis, Bain said. However, even if new sources are discovered, supply will remain tight since it could take a decade for the first diamonds to be brought to market. The supply shortfall will support prices even during possible periods of volatility and demand may be further boosted if investment in diamonds grows.